Cardlytics ($CDLX): Q2 Pre-Earnings Analysis (Research Note #266)

Analysis of Q2 based on the data, trends, and observations made throughout the quarter.

Before CDLX releases Q2 earnings on August 7th, I wanted to share my analysis on the data, trends, and observations made throughout Q2, as seen in the weekly CDLX Reports.

I start with some high-level thoughts (serves as a summary of this post):

1. Long- / Medium-Term View on CDLX

   1. Changes with the Business and Product

   2. Upcoming Catalysts

   3. Changing Odds Based on Q2

   4. Assessing a Specific Risk

2. Short-Term / Q2-Only View (such as in relation to guidance)

   1. Positive Factors in Q2

   2. Neutral Factors in Q2

   3. Negative Factors in Q2

I then go into detail on the following:

1. Q2 Guidance (and a different view on the range provided)

2. Unique Advertisers and Offer Count in Q2

3. Lower Revenue Again in Q2 like Q1?

4. Redemptions in Q2 vs Q1

5. Large and Attractive Advertisers in Q2

   1. Overall Trends and Averages

   2. Who Did Not Return in Q2

   3. Returning Advertisers in Q2

   4. SBUX Campaign

   5. Negative Data Point

   6. Impact on Adjusted Contribution and EBITDA

6. Four Large Chase Updates in Q2

7. WFC and BofA Progress

8. New Advertiser Dashboard

9. Bridg / Rippl

10. Dosh

11. Inventory Placement

12. Lower Rev Share

13. Operating Expenses

14. Possible Announcements / Updates

15. Q3 2024 Guidance

Enjoy.