$HGV vs $AN $DDS $AZO: Buybacks Driving Returns

Analysis on the drivers of past returns for AutoNation, Dillard's, and AutoZone, and how it relates to HGV today.

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is currently trading at the highest buyback + dividend yield between the three large publicly traded timeshare companies (as discussed in the last Research Note on the three companies).

HGV is also the only one returning all of that in the form of buybacks.

As of today, HGV’s buyback yield is still 14%+ (based on FY25 guidance), which in general is quite high, making it a unique situation (combined with other factors I will discuss).

Given HGV’s large buybacks, I wanted to analyze some past examples of other companies where buybacks were the largest portion of their total returns (vs multiple expansion, growth in earnings or FCF, or returns to shareholders via dividends, over a given time period), and then compare it to HGV today.

Specifically, I go over historical examples of AutoNation (AN), Dillard’s (DDS), and AutoZone (AZO).

Enjoy.