Most Recent Updates in CVNA Research Notes

Austin Swanson
Jun 28, 2023
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Below are the most recent Carvana (CVNA) Research Notes. 

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For more information on Research Notes, see here.

Most Recent CVNA Updates

#16

#16 (11.22.2024, $263.33):

  • KMX vs CVNA 3Q24

    • This CVNA Research Note compares and analyzes the units and economics between Carvana and CarMax over time, through their latest earnings (Q3 2024).

    • The purpose of this Research Note is to be able to determine how well Carvana is doing in relation to CarMax under the many different components of their unit economics, and why (including areas where Carvana or CarMax is doing something fundamentally different).

    • Improvements were made versus the last time this analysis was shared, such as by adding new breakouts and comparisons, and more discussion on the differences.

    • This analysis required additional work given the different reporting practices and periods between the two companies (where other online resources do not have these exact comparisons available, which can lead to making incorrect comparisons and conclusions).

#15:

#15 (11.16.2024, $241.00):

  • 3Q24 Units and Economics

    • Analysis of the retail units and economics over time, with a focus on the latest QoQ changes.

    • Includes visuals and metrics not readily available within Carvana’s reporting / supplemental tables or from other sources.

#14:

#14 (10.30.2024, $208.74):

  • 3Q24 Pre-Earnings Analysis

    • Analysis on the upcoming earnings, in relation to guidance, CarMax, and past results.

#13:

#13 (10.27.2024, $202.53):

  • 3Q24 and 4Q24 Estimates

    • Estimates and analysis based on Carvana’s full-year guidance, and leveraging estimates of retail units.

    • Includes comparisons to recent actuals, CarMax, and vs interest expense + CapEx.

#12:

#12 (10.24.2024, $198.80):

  • KMX vs CVNA 2Q24

    • Comparing Carvana's and CarMax's retail units and economics over time, through their latest earnings.

      • The purpose of this Research Note is to be able to determine how well Carvana is doing in relation to CarMax, under the many different components of their unit economics.

      • Additionally, I wanted to have as even of a comparison as possible between the two, which required some additional work given their different reporting practices and periods (where other online resources I use do not have these exact comparisons available).

#11:

#11 (10.22.2024, $191.31):

  • 2Q24 Units and Economics

    • Carvana’s retail units and economics over time, through Q2 2024.

      • The focus of this CVNA Research Note is on Carvana’s retail units and economics over time, through Q2 2024.

      • The purpose of this Research Note is to create visuals and metrics not readily available within Carvana’s reporting / supplemental tables or from other sources.

        • Such as incremental profit per retail unit which is insightful, more recurring figures that require adjusting reported numbers, and more.

      • Additionally, I wanted to create the infrastructure to be able to compare the units and economics to other companies like CarMax.

#10:

#10 (10.9.2024, $192.04):

  • Medium-Term Retail Units

    • Analysis of Carvana's growth prospects over the medium term.

      • Past proof points for future unit levels

      • Future market penetration analysis

      • Current vs future capacity

      • Funding and progress towards that future capacity

      • New initiatives and benefits with latest inspection centers

      • S&P / Moody’s upgrades and market interest rates decreasing

      • Fixed-cost leverage and associated savings

#9:

#9 (10.3.2024, $176.88):

  • Near-Term Retail Units

    • Analysis of Carvana's growth prospects over the next year and beyond.

      • Past vs new trends

      • Multiple changes in the market

      • How Carvana could accelerate growth

      • Why growth will be different than in the past

      • Recent observed changes

#8:

#8 (12.19.2023, $59.80):

  • Current Thoughts in Q4 2023

#7:

#7 (11.2.2023, $25.99): (and ~45min video)

  • Thoughts Before Q3 2023 Earnings

    • How CVNA’s Q3 results could be much higher than the updated outlook (scenarios included and discussed)

    • Possible Q4 guidance

    • Returning to growth + leverage on fixed costs + sustainable margins

#6:

#6 (7.8.2023, $29.45):

  • Catalysts for a Significantly Higher Stock Price in the Near Term

#5:

#5 (7.6.2023, $24.97):

  • How 23Q2 Could be Better than the Updated Outlook

#4:

#4 (6.29.2023, $25.74):

  • When to Buy More During the Cancer Surgery Formula

#3:

#3 (2.6.2023, $13.43):

  • Thoughts Before The Q4 Call

    • Current Trend of Lower Units

    • Cost Efficiencies vs Cost Cutting

    • Liquidity

    • Short Float %

    • Equity Raise or Debt-for-Equity Swap

#2:

#2 (10.31.2022, $13.53):

  • Cancer Surgery Formula

    • As seen with:

      • Buffett/Munger & GEICO/Coke

      • Lynch & Fannie Mae

      • Miller & Amazon

      • Sleep & Stagecoach

#1:

#1 (10.31.2022, $13.53):

  • Thoughts Before 22Q3 Call

    • Liquidity

    • Inventory

    • Real estate

    • Cost cutting / efficiencies

    • GPU / SG&A

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Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CVNA.

This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.

Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.

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