Most Recent Updates in CVNA Research Notes

Austin Swanson
Jun 28, 2023
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Below are the most recent Carvana (CVNA) Research Notes. 

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For more information on Research Notes, see here.

Most Recent CVNA Updates

#15:

#15 (11.16.2024, $241.00):

  • 3Q24 Units and Economics

    • Analysis of the retail units and economics over time, with a focus on the latest QoQ changes.

    • Includes visuals and metrics not readily available within Carvana’s reporting / supplemental tables or from other sources.

#14:

#14 (10.30.2024, $208.74):

  • 3Q24 Pre-Earnings Analysis

    • Analysis on the upcoming earnings, in relation to guidance, CarMax, and past results.

#13:

#13 (10.27.2024, $202.53):

  • 3Q24 and 4Q24 Estimates

    • Estimates and analysis based on Carvana’s full-year guidance, and leveraging estimates of retail units.

    • Includes comparisons to recent actuals, CarMax, and vs interest expense + CapEx.

#12:

#12 (10.24.2024, $198.80):

  • KMX vs CVNA 2Q24

    • Comparing Carvana's and CarMax's retail units and economics over time, through their latest earnings.

      • The purpose of this Research Note is to be able to determine how well Carvana is doing in relation to CarMax, under the many different components of their unit economics.

      • Additionally, I wanted to have as even of a comparison as possible between the two, which required some additional work given their different reporting practices and periods (where other online resources I use do not have these exact comparisons available).

#11:

#11 (10.22.2024, $191.31):

  • 2Q24 Units and Economics

    • Carvana’s retail units and economics over time, through Q2 2024.

      • The focus of this CVNA Research Note is on Carvana’s retail units and economics over time, through Q2 2024.

      • The purpose of this Research Note is to create visuals and metrics not readily available within Carvana’s reporting / supplemental tables or from other sources.

        • Such as incremental profit per retail unit which is insightful, more recurring figures that require adjusting reported numbers, and more.

      • Additionally, I wanted to create the infrastructure to be able to compare the units and economics to other companies like CarMax.

#10:

#10 (10.9.2024, $192.04):

  • Medium-Term Retail Units

    • Analysis of Carvana's growth prospects over the medium term.

      • Past proof points for future unit levels

      • Future market penetration analysis

      • Current vs future capacity

      • Funding and progress towards that future capacity

      • New initiatives and benefits with latest inspection centers

      • S&P / Moody’s upgrades and market interest rates decreasing

      • Fixed-cost leverage and associated savings

#9:

#9 (10.3.2024, $176.88):

  • Near-Term Retail Units

    • Analysis of Carvana's growth prospects over the next year and beyond.

      • Past vs new trends

      • Multiple changes in the market

      • How Carvana could accelerate growth

      • Why growth will be different than in the past

      • Recent observed changes

#8:

#8 (12.19.2023, $59.80):

  • Current Thoughts in Q4 2023

#7:

#7 (11.2.2023, $25.99): (and ~45min video)

  • Thoughts Before Q3 2023 Earnings

    • How CVNA’s Q3 results could be much higher than the updated outlook (scenarios included and discussed)

    • Possible Q4 guidance

    • Returning to growth + leverage on fixed costs + sustainable margins

#6:

#6 (7.8.2023, $29.45):

  • Catalysts for a Significantly Higher Stock Price in the Near Term

#5:

#5 (7.6.2023, $24.97):

  • How 23Q2 Could be Better than the Updated Outlook

#4:

#4 (6.29.2023, $25.74):

  • When to Buy More During the Cancer Surgery Formula

#3:

#3 (2.6.2023, $13.43):

  • Thoughts Before The Q4 Call

    • Current Trend of Lower Units

    • Cost Efficiencies vs Cost Cutting

    • Liquidity

    • Short Float %

    • Equity Raise or Debt-for-Equity Swap

#2:

#2 (10.31.2022, $13.53):

  • Cancer Surgery Formula

    • As seen with:

      • Buffett/Munger & GEICO/Coke

      • Lynch & Fannie Mae

      • Miller & Amazon

      • Sleep & Stagecoach

#1:

#1 (10.31.2022, $13.53):

  • Thoughts Before 22Q3 Call

    • Liquidity

    • Inventory

    • Real estate

    • Cost cutting / efficiencies

    • GPU / SG&A

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Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CVNA.

This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.

Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.

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Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:

Carvana CVNA Qualitative Research Notes Swany407 Research Notes Analysis Austin Swanson, 2018 Analyst Day, Competition, CarMax, Vroom, Shift, AutoNation, GM, Local, Dealers, and more, Disadvantages, selection, delivery, inspection and reconditioning, IRCs, Financing, Vehicle Service Contracts, VSC, Extended Warranties, GAP, Fees, Commission, Site Visits, Footprint, capacity, size, processes, root, insurance, hertz, new cars, drivetime, silverrock, blueshore, short thesis, Twitter, resources, Valuation, Market Penetration, Total Addressable Market, SG&A, Valuation, Intrinsic Value, Advertising, Securitizations, Operating Leverage, Retail Margin, Gross profit per unit, GPU, $CVNA, Austin Swanson, Carvana CVNA Quantitative Research Notes Swany407 Research Notes Analysis Austin Swanson, 2018 Analyst Day, Competition, CarMax, Vroom, Shift, AutoNation, GM, Local, Dealers, and more, Disadvantages, selection, delivery, inspection and reconditioning, IRCs, Financing, Vehicle Service Contracts, VSC, Extended Warranties, GAP, Fees, Commission, Site Visits, Footprint, capacity, size, processes, root, insurance, hertz, new cars, drivetime, silverrock, blueshore, short thesis, Twitter, resources, Valuation, Market Penetration, Total Addressable Market, SG&A, Valuation, Intrinsic Value, Advertising, Securitizations, Operating Leverage, Retail Margin, Gross profit per unit, GPU, $CVNA, Austin Swanson

I frequently send out emails that contain the most recent updates to these notes:

Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:

Cardlytics CDLX Quantitative Qualitative Research Notes Swany407 Research Notes Austin Swanson, Competitive Advantages, Dosh, Bridg, product-level offers, new ad server, attribution, conference, presentation, partners, affirm, apple pay, google pay, POS Systems, API, insights, google, facebook, visa, mastercard, concentration, advertisers, risks, BofA renewal, self-service, short thesis, differentiation, execution risk, engagement, insider selling, glassdoor reviews, purchase data, twitter, additional resources, earnings, market price, sentiment, valuation, intrinsic value, measurement, incrementality, multi-touch attribution, marketing mix modeling, total marketing modeling, iOS14.5, IDFA, growth, massive scale, loyalty programs, 100 bagger, charlie munger, LTV/CAC, ROAS, total addressable market, TAM, $CDLX

  • Cardlytics ($CDLX) Qualitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

  • Cardlytics ($CDLX) Quantitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

I frequently send out emails that contain the most recent updates to these notes:

General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):

Portfolio Updates:

Current holdings and allocations, and reasons behind recent buy / sell / hold decisions.

Reviews on the Research Notes

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