Most Recent Updates in CDLX Research Notes
Most Recent Updates in CDLX Research Notes
Below is the list of the most recent updates made within the Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes. This is an easier way to find new information to read, and keep track of updates.
The links will take you to the corresponding email that was sent out, where the related notes are at the bottom of that post.
I will be updating this as the single location of the most recent updates made in the CDLX Research Notes.
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For more information on Research Notes, see here.
Most Recent Updates within the CDLX Research Notes
#248:
#248 (4.28.2024, $12.31):
CDLX Report #37 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.28.2024
#247:
#247 (4.21.2024, $12.22):
CDLX Report #36 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.21.2024
#246:
#246 (4.20.2024, $12.22):
Important New Observation - Part 3
#245:
#245 (4.19.2024, $12.10):
Important New Observation - Part 2
#244:
#244 (4.18.2024, $11.98):
Important New Observation
#243:
#243 (4.14.2024, $13.57):
CDLX Report #35 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.14.2024
#242:
#242 (4.7.2024, $13.67):
CDLX Report #34 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.7.2024
#241:
#241 (3.31.2024, $14.46):
CDLX Report #33 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.31.2024
#240:
#240 (3.24.2024, $15.90):
CDLX Report #32 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.24.2024
#239:
#239 (3.20.2024, $15.10):
Q4 2023 Earnings
AmEx details and numbers, reason for the $50M ATM stock offering, 2025 converts, other new banks, ADE, large advertisers, receipt-level offers, Rippl growth, financial results and guidance, and more.
#238:
#238 (3.17.2024, $14.50):
CDLX Report #31 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.17.2024
#237:
#237 (3.11.2024, $8.44):
CDLX Report #30 Part 2
#236:
#236 (3.10.2024, $7.93):
CDLX Report #30 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.10.2024
#235:
#235 (3.3.2024, $8.39):
CDLX Report #29 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.3.2024
#234:
#234 (2.25.2024, $6.95):
CDLX Report #28 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.25.2024
Discussions on the return of SBUX.
#233:
#233 (2.20.2024, $6.41):
CDLX Report #27 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.20.2024
#232:
#232 (2.11.2024, $6.32):
CDLX Report #26 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.11.2024
#231:
#231 (2.4.2024, $7.51):
CDLX Report #25 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.4.2024
#230:
#230 (1.29.2024, $7.19):
CDLX Report #24 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.29.2024
#229:
#229 (1.28.2024, $5.77):
Exclusive Interview with Former CDLX Executive
#228:
#228 (1.22.2024, $6.43):
CDLX Report #23 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.22.2024
#227:
#227 (1.15.2024, $6.91):
CDLX VP of Product Interview
#226:
#226 (1.14.2024, $6.91):
CDLX Report #22 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.14.2024
#225:
#225 (1.11.2024, $7.19):
Nom Nom Interview About CDLX
#224:
#224 (1.9.2024, $7.07):
Panera Interview About CDLX
#223:
#223 (1.7.2024, $7.03):
CDLX Report #21 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.7.2024
#222:
#222 (1.3.2024, $7.96):
CDLX Report #20 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.2.2024
#221:
#221 (12.28.2023, $9.28):
Vudu Fandango Interview About CDLX
#220:
#220 (12.27.2023, $9.32):
CDLX Report #19 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.27.2023
#219:
#219 (12.26.2023, $8.92):
Quip Interview About CDLX
#218:
#218 (12.20.2023, $8.53):
Bridg Earnout Disputes - New Scenarios and Liquidity Analysis
#217:
#217 (12.19.2023, $9.11):
PrettyLitter Tegus Interview About CDLX
#216:
#216 (12.17.2023, $8.62):
CDLX Report #18 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.17.2023
#215:
#215 (12.16.2023, $8.62):
Casper and Firstleaf Interview About CDLX
#214:
#214 (12.14.2023, $8.47):
AmEx and Capital One Interview About CDLX
#213:
#213 (12.12.2023, $8.10):
GotPrint Tegus Call About Cardlytics
#212:
#212 (12.12.2023, $8.01):
Kigo Acquires Entertainment from CDLX
#211:
#211 (12.10.2023, $8.44):
CDLX Report #17 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.10.2023
#210:
#210 (12.4.2023, $8.86):
Allbirds Tegus Call About Cardlytics
#209:
#209 (12.3.2023, $8.50):
CDLX Report #16 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.3.2023
#208:
#208 (11.27.2023, $7.45):
CDLX Report #15 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.27.2023
#207:
#207 (11.26.2023, $7.83): (and video)
Q3 2023 Earnings
#206:
#206 (11.19.2023, $7.75): (and video)
CDLX Report #14 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.19.2023
#205:
#205 (11.13.2023, $7.39): (and video)
CDLX Report #13 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.13.2023
#204:
#204 (11.5.2023, $13.87): (and video)
CDLX Report #12 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.5.2023
#203:
#203 (10.29.2023, $11.67): (and video)
CDLX Report #11 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.29.2023
#202:
#202 (10.25.2023, $11.90): (and video)
How Q3 Results and Q4 Guidance Could Be Better than Expected
#201:
#201 (10.23.2023, $11.70): (and video)
CDLX Report #10 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.23.2023
#200:
#200 (10.22.2023, $11.68): (and video)
Possible Q3 Announcements & Updates
There are a large number of possible upcoming announcements / updates for CDLX.
If any one of these occur, let alone multiple, it could have a significant impact on CDLX’s market price.
#199:
#199 (10.15.2023, $11.04): (and video)
CDLX Report #9 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.15.2023
#198:
#198 (10.12.2023, $13.07):
Big Development with Chase
#197:
#197 (10.10.2023, $13.68): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #8 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.10.2023
#196:
#196 (9.30.2023, $16.50): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #7 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.30.2023
#195:
#195 (9.24.2023, $14.40): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #6 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.24.2023
#194:
#194 (9.17.2023, $19.15):
CDLX Report #5 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.17.2023
#193:
#193 (9.11.2023, $18.47):
CDLX Report #4 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.11.2023
#192:
#192 (9.4.2023, $17.22):
CDLX Report #3 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 9.4.2023
#191:
#191 (8.31.2023, $16.69):
Potential New Bank and Fintech Partners
Update on specific major potential bank partner I previously discussed
How CDLX could very quickly partner with a certain set of banks and fintechs at one time
#190:
#190 (8.29.2023, $13.86):
Bridg Launches Rippl Data and Media Network
Potential Financial Impact
Background (about RMNs + previous comments by Karim)
About Rippl
Rippl Description
Bridg Bureau
Solving the Issue of Lack of Scale and Data
Universal Media Inc. (UMI) Partner
Solving the Issue of Lack of Standardization for Advertisers
Additional Benefits for Retailers
Comments by Amit Gupta (CDLX COO and Bridg GM)
Schnucks
National Retail Solutions (NRS) Partner
Replicability / Scale Benefits / Optionality
Dollar General vs Schnucks
Other Regional Grocery Chains
Other Regional Gas Stations
Payment Model for Bridg
#189:
#189 (8.27.2023, $13.41):
CDLX Report #2 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 8.27.2023
#188:
#188 (8.21.2023, $13.20):
CDLX Report #1 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 8.21.2023
#187:
#187 (8.11.2023, $12.50):
Adding Videos on Offers
CDLX Capabilities for Adding Video
Banks Willingness to Add Video
With direct comments from the Former Managing Director, Head Of Card Business Development & Strategy At JP Morgan Chase & Co
Demand from Advertisers for Video
Higher Prices for Ads with Video
Extra Incentive to Watch Video Ads
Format and Which Offers to Have Video
#186:
#186 (8.3.2023, $13.76):
Q2 2023 Earnings - First Thoughts
New User Experience at Chase
Early Stats on the New User Experience*
BofA and Wells on the New Ad Server and New User Experience*
New Potential Banks*
Details on the Updated Chase Billing Share Agreement
Other Banks At a Lower Billing Share*
Naming a New CFO
Bridg RMN & CPG Products Update
Bridg Earnout Update
Product-Level Offers Update*
Results
Multi-Tier Pilot
Pricing Pilot (Dynamic Marketplace, Bidding, Dynamic Pricing, and more)
New Hires
Liquidity Analysis (Much better than expected, following the Q2 updates discussed in this post)
*This means this discussion item includes something important mentioned after the call by CDLX.
#185:
#185 (7.30.2023, $11.01):
Important Items for 23Q2 Earnings
#184:
#184 (7.23.2023, $8.75):
Potential New Major Bank Partner
#183:
#183 (7.18.2023, $9.91):
CDLX Appoints New CFO
#182:
#182 (7.13.2023, $9.74):
Possible Upcoming Announcements & Updates
#181:
#181 (7.12.2023, $8.67):
Observations in Q2 2023
#180:
#180 (7.7.2023, $6.13):
Change in Billings Share with Chase
#179:
#179 (7.1.2023, $6.32):
The $100B Opportunity with Retail Media Networks and CPG
#178:
#178 (6.13.2023, $6.21):
Chase & Figg Updates
Includes information related to Chase’s investor day.
#177:
#177 (5.23.2023, $5.78):
"1,000 Bagger" Valuation Scenarios
Last week I spoke with Jason Rothman from the After Dinner Investor podcast about Cardlytics, on the episode, “Will Cardlytics Be a 1,000 Bagger?”. In that interview, we discussed multiple possible valuation scenarios.
Given we covered that section quite quickly, I wanted to provide some additional information that may be helpful (all included at the bottom of this post), as well as additional scenarios (including two 1,000 bagger scenarios).
Bearish / Base / Bullish Scenarios
While I walked through these on the podcast, I wanted to lay out all the numbers and related information.
I also wanted to include the full valuations on the more bullish scenarios (where in the interview I only provided the revenue).
Related to this, I wanted to discuss possible new banks and the reasons they could join, leading to higher MAUs.
Also included valuations if a major bank left.
There is also a potential margin of safety that is highlighted.
1,000 Bagger Scenarios
In the podcast I mentioned different factors that could get CDLX there, but I did not discuss the actual numbers.
Therefore, I added what would need to happen in terms of numbers, and why it is possible.
I included two different ways this could occur.
Also included a discussion of the runway.
Supporting Information
Details on ARPU, MAUs, FI Revenue Share, OpEx & Delivery Costs, Taxes and NOLs, Multiples, 2025 Convertible Senior Notes (Converts), Line of Credit (LOC), Share Count and Dilution.
#174-176:
#175 (5.11.2023, $6.41):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 3)
11. Updated FCF Timing Expectations From CDLX (and an additional liquidity scenario)
12. Additional Notes on Line of Credit (Amount Available, vs Factoring)
13. Additional Notes on 2025 Converts (and potential near-term ARPU)
14. Other Less-Discussed Liquidity Resources
15. Possible Reasons for Lack of Positive Commentary on the Call
16. UK Bank Update + Fintechs
17. Final Thoughts
#175 (5.9.2023, $5.75):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 2)
7. Loss of a UK Bank (detailed information not on the call)
8. New Banks and Fintechs
9. Goal and Timing for MAUs on New Ad Server + New User Experience
10. One Question on the Call
#174 (5.8.2023, $5.81):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 1)
1. Cash Flow Positive Timing
2. Liquidity Resources (Cash, Line of Credit, Accounts Receivable)
3. Updated Liquidity Numbers (Post Earnout and Q2-Q4 Burn)
4. Chase and the New User Experience
5. New Offer Constructs and Timing (Spend-Stretch, Multi-Tier, Product-Level)
6. New Targeting
#172-173:
#173 (5.4.2023, $8.21):
Thoughts Before Today's Earnings Call
List of all the items I am looking out for (between the 10-Q, earnings call, investor follow-up calls, etc.)
#172 (5.3.2023, $8.15):
New & Improved Feature (on the New User Experience, seen at Chase)
Why this one feature could lead to:
Near-term increases in engagement & ARPU (average revenue per user)
Eventually produce cash flow that is multiples of today's market cap
#171:
#171 (5.1.2023, $8.41):
First Thoughts on Bridg Dispute Outcome
First Earnout versus Expectations
Cash versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Dilution versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Second Earnout $0 (possible reasons why this dropped to $0)
New Liquidity Position (factors in cash, LOC, Q1 and Q2 burn, and the new earnout payments….also a quite note on the 2025 convertible senior notes)
Underappreciated Secondary Benefit
#170:
#170 (4.27.2023, $6.48):
Updated VWAP Projections
5 trading days remaining of 20
New projection added (leads to highest level of ending liquidity, and may be more likely than most other scenarios)
#166-169:
#169 (4.25.2023, $5.79):
Updated VWAP Projections
7 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
New scenario added (given we now know the timing of Q1 earnings)
#168 (4.24.2023, $6.06):
Follow-up Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
Based on now knowing the timing of Q1 earnings
Additional thoughts related to recent large Form 4s
#167 (4.23.2023, $6.50):
Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
#166 (4.22.2023, $6.50):
Updated VWAP Projections
9 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
#164-165:
#165 (4.18.2023, $7.01):
Updated VWAP Projections
12 trading days remaining of 20
Additional graphs to more easily see changes and trends
Added ending share count and liquidity (after both earnout payments)
#164 (4.17.2023, $6.60):
Current VWAP for 2nd Bridg earnout payment (the stock component)
13 trading days remaining of 20
Stock prices and volume projections (for the 2nd VWAP)
#162-163:
#163 (4.12.2023, $6.00):
Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution
#162 (4.11.2023, $6.28):
Potential Bridg Clients
#160-161:
#161 (4.7.2023, $5.97):
Timing of Announcements
#160 (4.5.2023, $4.84):
Updated Projections
Convertible Senior Notes
#158-159:
#159 (4.4.2023, $6.24):
Updated Guidance
Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections
#158 (4.3.2023, $3.45):
Dates for 2nd Bridg Earnout Payment VWAP
Timing of Possible Announcements / Earnings
#156-157:
#157 (4.3.2023, $3.45):
Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule
#156 (4.1.2023, $3.39):
Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images
#154-155:
#155 (3.29.2023, $2.85):
How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share
#154 (3.28.2023, $2.60):
My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage Made Today
#150-153:
#153 (3.27.2023, $2.64):
Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price
#152 (3.26.2023, $2.67):
First Thoughts of the New User Experience on Chase
#151 (3.25.2023, $2.67):
Update to Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#150 (3.24.2023, $2.67):
Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#145-149:
#149 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
PacWest Deposits and LOC
#148 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
Resignation of CFO - New thought on timing, related to the earnouts
#147 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
Bridg Dispute
#146 (3.22.2023, $2.96):
Resignation of CFO - Updated and additional thoughts
#145 (3.22.2023, $2.96):
Resignation of CFO - Added my first thoughts
#140-144:
“Why I Bought More”
#144 (3.19.2023, $3.12):
Updated liquidity analysis (with recent LOC drawdown + earnouts + dispute)
Future diluted share count (with earnouts + dispute + if equity raise)
Future value per diluted share (vs today)
Includes video discussing this section
#143 (3.18.2023, $3.12):
Analysis of the new LOC covenants related to the Bridg earnouts and the dispute
#142 (3.15.2023, $3.39):
Analysis of the limit on the LOC from accounts receivable
#141 (3.14.2023, $3.63):
Analysis of the interest on the LOC
#140 (3.14.2023, $3.63):
Thoughts on the partial drawdown of the line of credit
Thoughts on CDLX minimizing exposure to any single financial institution and maximizing FDIC insurance
#133-139:
#139 (3.11.2023, $3.74):
Liquidity Analysis
Prior Use of SVB
#138 (3.9.2023, $4.15):
Chase and the New User Experience (on the new ad server
Convertible Senior Notes (a change related to maturity)
#137 (3.8.2023, $4.55):
Insider Buying
Confirmation of Reporting Mistakes
Confirmation of an Executive Leaving
#136 (3.6.2023, $4.94):
Line of Credit (Changes)
Bridg Earnouts and Dispute (Updates)
Updated Liquidity Analysis (After Bridg Earnouts and Dispute)
#135 (3.5.2023, $5.03):
Actual/Guidance vs Expected Financials (used to update assumptions and model)
#134 (3.4.2023, $5.03):
Potential Reporting Mistakes (x3)
#133 (3.3.2023, $5.03):
22Q4 Earnings, and More
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