Most Recent Updates in CDLX Research Notes
Below are the most recent Cardlytics (CDLX) Research Notes.
For those of you who do not have access yet, upgrade your subscription here:
For more information on Research Notes, see here.
Most Recent CDLX Research Notes
#287:
#287 (11.17.2024, $3.38):
CDLX Report #66 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.17.2024
New “Commerce AI Platform and Technologies”, new Head of Sales Readiness and Enablement, new Bridg / Rippl podcast, large increase in new job listings, new large advertiser returns, and more.
#286:
#286 (11.12.2024, $4.23):
3Q24 Post-Earnings Analysis
High Level / Summary
Q3 Results
Q4 Guidance
FY 2025 Guidance
AmEx
Chase Media Solutions (CMS)
New Banks
Large Advertisers
Advertiser Insights Portal (Dashboard)
Rippl and CPG Spend
Measurement and MMM
SKU-Level Insights and Product Offers
MAUs
Operating Expenses
Rev Share Changes
Dynamics Marketplace and Engagement-Based Pricing Model
#285:
#285 (11.11.2024, $4.55):
CDLX Report #65 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.10.2024
New features with Chase Offers, a new board member, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#284:
#284 (11.5.2024, $4.69):
3Q24 Pre-Earnings Analysis
Contains information that led me to significantly increase my allocation of CDLX. I also discuss that allocation decision in this CDLX Research Note.
I start with some high-level thoughts (serves as a summary of this post):
Positive Factors
Neutral Factors
Negative Factors
I then go into detail on the following:
Recap + Q3/Q4 Guidance
Unique Advertisers and Offer Count in Q3
Redemptions in Q3 vs Q2
Large and Attractive Advertisers in Q3
Chase Updates in Q3
WFC and BofA Progress
New Advertiser Insights Portal (Dashboard)
Bridg / Rippl
Dosh
CMS Inventory
Operating Expenses + Hiring / Departures
Nasdaq Event
Q4 2024 Guidance
Possible Announcements / Updates
Long- / Medium-Term View Based on Q3 (and Investment Prospects)
#283:
#283 (11.3.2024, $4.18):
CDLX Report #64 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.3.2024
New measurement with MMMs, CDLX at Nasdaq, new push notification for Chase Offers, change with Chase’s user experience, sign of fixing recent issues, new CMS advertisers, new & returning advertisers (including large), and more.
#282:
#282 (10.28.2024, $3.88):
CDLX Report #63 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.27.2024
Change in offers location, new information on insights portal, updated Rippl numbers, change in hiring trend, new CMS advertisers, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#281:
#281 (10.21.2024, $3.98):
CDLX Report #62 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.20.2024
Rippl announcement, new Chase push notifications, new CMS advertisers, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#280:
#280 (10.14.2024, $3.63):
CDLX Report #61 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.13.2024
Potential signs of Citi testing CDLX, new CMS observations, new insights dashboard, new Bridg GM, new Chase Offers pass for notifications, new Rippl numbers, product offers, new advertisers, and more.
#279:
#279 (10.7.2024, $3.29):
CDLX Report #60 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.6.2024
New Starbucks offers on AmEx, new location of US Bank offers, new Chase email on a specific offer, new Chase Media Solutions advertisers, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#278:
#278 (9.30.2024, $3.26):
CDLX Report #59 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.29.2024
Product-level offers update, new filters and sorting capabilities, new partnership, new Chase-funded offer, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#277:
#277 (9.23.2024, $3.67):
CDLX Report #58 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.22.2024
Karim Temsamani update, employee exclusive Chase offer, new offer construct / terms, new Chase Media Solutions advertiser, new and returning advertisers (including large & attractive), and more.
#276:
#276 (9.16.2024, $3.72):
CDLX Report #57 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.15.2024
Chase pop-ups for offers, new CDLX job promotions, Monzo launch event, Chase Media Solutions updates, returning advertisers, and more.
#275:
#275 (9.9.2024, $3.42):
CDLX Report #56 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.8.2024
New regional grocer using Rippl, another Bridg / Rippl observation, BofA special offers, new Chase Media Solutions offers and changes, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#274:
#274 (9.2.2024, $3.91):
CDLX Report #55 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.1.2024
Three deviations from recent trends, updated advertising of Chase Offers, change in listed CDLX FI partners, Chase categories, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#273:
#273 (8.26.2024, $3.89):
CDLX Report #54 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 8.25.2024
New Yahoo partnership, new SBUX offer, new CEO compensation, new offer construct, update on Chase's user experience, and more.
#272:
#272 (8.20.2024, $4.00):
New Interviews with Former Employees and Advertisers
Thoughts and notes on recent interviews with a former CDLX director, VP, and advertisers.
#271:
#271 (8.19.2024, $3.76):
CDLX Report #53 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 8.18.2024
Many returning advertisers, new observations related to varying expiration dates and categories, more insider transactions, and more.
#270:
#270 (8.12.2024, $3.52):
CDLX Report #52 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 8.11.2024
New insider purchases, new and returning advertisers (including large advertisers and new offer constructs), new CMS updates, and more.
#269:
#269 (8.9.2024, $3.78):
Q2 Initial Notes and Thoughts
First notes and thoughts on Q2 earnings and the CEO change, including information from after the call.
#268:
#268 (8.5.2024, $7.10):
CDLX Report #51 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 8.4.2024
Large new and returning advertisers, AmEx updates, Chase Media Solutions developments, and more.
#267:
#267 (7.29.2024, $8.33):
CDLX Report #50 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 7.28.2024
New and returning advertisers, new CDLX survey, update on CDLX’s website, Google’s new plans with cookies, update on non-CDLX offers in BofA, and more.
#266:
#266 (7.26.2024, $8.70):
Q2 Pre-Earnings Analysis
Analysis of Q2 based on the data, trends, and observations made throughout the quarter.
#265:
#265 (7.22.2024, $8.45):
CDLX Report #49 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 7.21.2024
Changes with a large returning advertiser, new Chase Media Solutions offer, other CMS updates, more new and returning advertisers, changes in employee count and job listings, and more.
#264:
#264 (7.15.2024, $8.43):
CDLX Report #48 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 7.14.2024
New and returning advertisers, more Chase Media Solution updates, new duration of offers, update on CDLX's website, Rippl podcast, and more.
#263:
#263 (7.8.2024, $8.33):
CDLX Report #47 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 7.7.2024
New and returning advertisers (including large), important Chase Media Solution updates, changes to cash back (possibly related to rev share), changes in multi-tier offers, and more.
#262:
#262 (7.1.2024, $8.08):
CDLX Report #46 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 6.30.2024
Possible sign of a decrease in rev share, more returning advertisers, new Chase-sourced offers, email from Chase, and more.
#261:
#261 (6.24.2024, $8.03):
CDLX Report #45 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 6.23.2024
Updated version of the new user experience, current Rippl audiences, new coverage of CDLX, new Chase-only offer, new Chase Media Solution employees and jobs, new advertisers, and more.
#260:
#260 (6.17.2024, $8.30):
CDLX Report #44 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 6.16.2024
New and returning advertisers (including large advertisers), changes upon renewal, BofA bonus offers, Venmo issue, new Chase-sourced offer, changes in employees and job listings, and more.
#259:
#259 (6.10.2024, $9.00):
CDLX Report #43 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 6.9.2024
Rippl announcement, new features and updates on Chase, changes in Chase-sourced offer count, new advertisers, and more.
#258:
#258 (6.6.2024, $9.24):
Interviews with Former Executives and Employees of CDLX and Others in the Industry
My notes + thoughts + additional supporting information.
#257:
#257 (6.2.2024, $8.53):
CDLX Report #42 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 6.2.2024
PayPal’s new Advanced Ad Platform for offers, observation regarding varying cash back, changes in offer count, new returning large advertisers, changes in Chase-sourced offers, and more.
#256:
#256 (5.27.2024, $9.40):
CDLX Report #41 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 5.26.2024
Significant Chase Media Solution observations, updates on Venmo, Dosh observation, changes in cash back, new special BofA campaign, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#255:
#255 (5.22.2024, $8.95):
Increases in Redemptions
Deeper analysis into CDLX's lower revenue and higher redemptions in Q1 and Q2.
#254:
#254 (5.21.2024, $8.87):
Q1 Earnings Analysis
Notes, thoughts, and details following CDLX’s Q1 earnings.
#253:
#253 (5.19.2024, $8.79):
CDLX Report #40 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 5.19.2024
Change in Chase's user experience, changes in cash back, new partner showing up in bank data, new data, new and returning advertisers, changes in employees and more.
#252:
#252 (5.14.2024, $9.49):
Major Changes to Chase's User Experience
There was a significant update to Chase's user experience today. This is currently only seen on some accounts and cards.
#251:
#251 (5.13.2024, $9.12):
CDLX Report #39 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 5.13.2024
New advertisers, returning advertisers, new Chase-sourced advertisers, changes in employees and job listings, and more.
#250:
#250 (5.8.2024, $15.27):
Expectations for Q1 Earnings
Possible announcements, likely Q1 results, and potential Q2 guidance, as well as other notes and thoughts before CDLX's Q1 earnings today.
#249:
#249 (5.5.2024, $14.88):
CDLX Report #38 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 5.5.2024
Change with Chase Offers, large advertiser possibly changing ad spend, new CDLX bank with ambitious goals, updated CDLX page, new advertisers, changes in Chase-sourced offers, and more.
#248:
#248 (4.28.2024, $12.31):
CDLX Report #37 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.28.2024
New unique day with special offers in one bank, new interview, new advertisers, returning advertisers, new job listings, changes in Chase-sourced offers, and more.
#247:
#247 (4.21.2024, $12.22):
CDLX Report #36 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.21.2024
New trends and spend from a very large advertiser, new Chase email, new Venmo promotion, new advertisers, changes in employees, and more.
#246:
#246 (4.20.2024, $12.22):
Important New Observation - Part 3
#245:
#245 (4.19.2024, $12.10):
Important New Observation - Part 2
#244:
#244 (4.18.2024, $11.98):
Important New Observation
#243:
#243 (4.14.2024, $13.57):
CDLX Report #35 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.14.2024
New senior hire in a brand new growth area, change on Chase app, new Chase email, new board member, new and returning advertisers, and more.
#242:
#242 (4.7.2024, $13.67):
CDLX Report #34 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 4.7.2024
New offer constructs, new testing of cash-back percentages, new senior hires, new advertisers, and more.
#241:
#241 (3.31.2024, $14.46):
CDLX Report #33 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.31.2024
#240:
#240 (3.24.2024, $15.90):
CDLX Report #32 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.24.2024
#239:
#239 (3.20.2024, $15.10):
Q4 2023 Earnings
AmEx details and numbers, reason for the $50M ATM stock offering, 2025 converts, other new banks, ADE, large advertisers, receipt-level offers, Rippl growth, financial results and guidance, and more.
#238:
#238 (3.17.2024, $14.50):
CDLX Report #31 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.17.2024
#237:
#237 (3.11.2024, $8.44):
CDLX Report #30 Part 2
#236:
#236 (3.10.2024, $7.93):
CDLX Report #30 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.10.2024
#235:
#235 (3.3.2024, $8.39):
CDLX Report #29 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 3.3.2024
#234:
#234 (2.25.2024, $6.95):
CDLX Report #28 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.25.2024
Discussions on the return of SBUX.
#233:
#233 (2.20.2024, $6.41):
CDLX Report #27 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.20.2024
#232:
#232 (2.11.2024, $6.32):
CDLX Report #26 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.11.2024
#231:
#231 (2.4.2024, $7.51):
CDLX Report #25 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 2.4.2024
#230:
#230 (1.29.2024, $7.19):
CDLX Report #24 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.29.2024
#229:
#229 (1.28.2024, $5.77):
Exclusive Interview with Former CDLX Executive
#228:
#228 (1.22.2024, $6.43):
CDLX Report #23 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.22.2024
#227:
#227 (1.15.2024, $6.91):
CDLX VP of Product Interview
#226:
#226 (1.14.2024, $6.91):
CDLX Report #22 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.14.2024
#225:
#225 (1.11.2024, $7.19):
Nom Nom Interview About CDLX
#224:
#224 (1.9.2024, $7.07):
Panera Interview About CDLX
#223:
#223 (1.7.2024, $7.03):
CDLX Report #21 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.7.2024
#222:
#222 (1.3.2024, $7.96):
CDLX Report #20 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 1.2.2024
#221:
#221 (12.28.2023, $9.28):
Vudu Fandango Interview About CDLX
#220:
#220 (12.27.2023, $9.32):
CDLX Report #19 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.27.2023
#219:
#219 (12.26.2023, $8.92):
Quip Interview About CDLX
#218:
#218 (12.20.2023, $8.53):
Bridg Earnout Disputes - New Scenarios and Liquidity Analysis
#217:
#217 (12.19.2023, $9.11):
PrettyLitter Tegus Interview About CDLX
#216:
#216 (12.17.2023, $8.62):
CDLX Report #18 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.17.2023
#215:
#215 (12.16.2023, $8.62):
Casper and Firstleaf Interview About CDLX
#214:
#214 (12.14.2023, $8.47):
AmEx and Capital One Interview About CDLX
#213:
#213 (12.12.2023, $8.10):
GotPrint Tegus Call About Cardlytics
#212:
#212 (12.12.2023, $8.01):
Kigo Acquires Entertainment from CDLX
#211:
#211 (12.10.2023, $8.44):
CDLX Report #17 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.10.2023
#210:
#210 (12.4.2023, $8.86):
Allbirds Tegus Call About Cardlytics
#209:
#209 (12.3.2023, $8.50):
CDLX Report #16 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 12.3.2023
#208:
#208 (11.27.2023, $7.45):
CDLX Report #15 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.27.2023
#207:
#207 (11.26.2023, $7.83): (and video)
Q3 2023 Earnings
#206:
#206 (11.19.2023, $7.75): (and video)
CDLX Report #14 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.19.2023
#205:
#205 (11.13.2023, $7.39): (and video)
CDLX Report #13 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.13.2023
#204:
#204 (11.5.2023, $13.87): (and video)
CDLX Report #12 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 11.5.2023
#203:
#203 (10.29.2023, $11.67): (and video)
CDLX Report #11 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.29.2023
#202:
#202 (10.25.2023, $11.90): (and video)
How Q3 Results and Q4 Guidance Could Be Better than Expected
#201:
#201 (10.23.2023, $11.70): (and video)
CDLX Report #10 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.23.2023
#200:
#200 (10.22.2023, $11.68): (and video)
Possible Q3 Announcements & Updates
There are a large number of possible upcoming announcements / updates for CDLX.
If any one of these occur, let alone multiple, it could have a significant impact on CDLX’s market price.
#199:
#199 (10.15.2023, $11.04): (and video)
CDLX Report #9 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.15.2023
#198:
#198 (10.12.2023, $13.07):
Big Development with Chase
#197:
#197 (10.10.2023, $13.68): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #8 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 10.10.2023
#196:
#196 (9.30.2023, $16.50): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #7 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.30.2023
#195:
#195 (9.24.2023, $14.40): (and link to video)
CDLX Report #6 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.24.2023
#194:
#194 (9.17.2023, $19.15):
CDLX Report #5 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.17.2023
#193:
#193 (9.11.2023, $18.47):
CDLX Report #4 - Current Offers, Advertisers, and Observations as of 9.11.2023
#192:
#192 (9.4.2023, $17.22):
CDLX Report #3 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 9.4.2023
#191:
#191 (8.31.2023, $16.69):
Potential New Bank and Fintech Partners
Update on specific major potential bank partner I previously discussed
How CDLX could very quickly partner with a certain set of banks and fintechs at one time
#190:
#190 (8.29.2023, $13.86):
Bridg Launches Rippl Data and Media Network
Potential Financial Impact
Background (about RMNs + previous comments by Karim)
About Rippl
Rippl Description
Bridg Bureau
Solving the Issue of Lack of Scale and Data
Universal Media Inc. (UMI) Partner
Solving the Issue of Lack of Standardization for Advertisers
Additional Benefits for Retailers
Comments by Amit Gupta (CDLX COO and Bridg GM)
Schnucks
National Retail Solutions (NRS) Partner
Replicability / Scale Benefits / Optionality
Dollar General vs Schnucks
Other Regional Grocery Chains
Other Regional Gas Stations
Payment Model for Bridg
#189:
#189 (8.27.2023, $13.41):
CDLX Report #2 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 8.27.2023
#188:
#188 (8.21.2023, $13.20):
CDLX Report #1 - Current Offers and Advertisers as of 8.21.2023
#187:
#187 (8.11.2023, $12.50):
Adding Videos on Offers
CDLX Capabilities for Adding Video
Banks Willingness to Add Video
With direct comments from the Former Managing Director, Head Of Card Business Development & Strategy At JP Morgan Chase & Co
Demand from Advertisers for Video
Higher Prices for Ads with Video
Extra Incentive to Watch Video Ads
Format and Which Offers to Have Video
#186:
#186 (8.3.2023, $13.76):
Q2 2023 Earnings - First Thoughts
New User Experience at Chase
Early Stats on the New User Experience*
BofA and Wells on the New Ad Server and New User Experience*
New Potential Banks*
Details on the Updated Chase Billing Share Agreement
Other Banks At a Lower Billing Share*
Naming a New CFO
Bridg RMN & CPG Products Update
Bridg Earnout Update
Product-Level Offers Update*
Results
Multi-Tier Pilot
Pricing Pilot (Dynamic Marketplace, Bidding, Dynamic Pricing, and more)
New Hires
Liquidity Analysis (Much better than expected, following the Q2 updates discussed in this post)
*This means this discussion item includes something important mentioned after the call by CDLX.
#185:
#185 (7.30.2023, $11.01):
Important Items for 23Q2 Earnings
#184:
#184 (7.23.2023, $8.75):
Potential New Major Bank Partner
#183:
#183 (7.18.2023, $9.91):
CDLX Appoints New CFO
#182:
#182 (7.13.2023, $9.74):
Possible Upcoming Announcements & Updates
#181:
#181 (7.12.2023, $8.67):
Observations in Q2 2023
#180:
#180 (7.7.2023, $6.13):
Change in Billings Share with Chase
#179:
#179 (7.1.2023, $6.32):
The $100B Opportunity with Retail Media Networks and CPG
#178:
#178 (6.13.2023, $6.21):
Chase & Figg Updates
Includes information related to Chase’s investor day.
#177:
#177 (5.23.2023, $5.78):
"1,000 Bagger" Valuation Scenarios
Last week I spoke with Jason Rothman from the After Dinner Investor podcast about Cardlytics, on the episode, “Will Cardlytics Be a 1,000 Bagger?”. In that interview, we discussed multiple possible valuation scenarios.
Given we covered that section quite quickly, I wanted to provide some additional information that may be helpful (all included at the bottom of this post), as well as additional scenarios (including two 1,000 bagger scenarios).
Bearish / Base / Bullish Scenarios
While I walked through these on the podcast, I wanted to lay out all the numbers and related information.
I also wanted to include the full valuations on the more bullish scenarios (where in the interview I only provided the revenue).
Related to this, I wanted to discuss possible new banks and the reasons they could join, leading to higher MAUs.
Also included valuations if a major bank left.
There is also a potential margin of safety that is highlighted.
1,000 Bagger Scenarios
In the podcast I mentioned different factors that could get CDLX there, but I did not discuss the actual numbers.
Therefore, I added what would need to happen in terms of numbers, and why it is possible.
I included two different ways this could occur.
Also included a discussion of the runway.
Supporting Information
Details on ARPU, MAUs, FI Revenue Share, OpEx & Delivery Costs, Taxes and NOLs, Multiples, 2025 Convertible Senior Notes (Converts), Line of Credit (LOC), Share Count and Dilution.
#174-176:
#175 (5.11.2023, $6.41):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 3)
11. Updated FCF Timing Expectations From CDLX (and an additional liquidity scenario)
12. Additional Notes on Line of Credit (Amount Available, vs Factoring)
13. Additional Notes on 2025 Converts (and potential near-term ARPU)
14. Other Less-Discussed Liquidity Resources
15. Possible Reasons for Lack of Positive Commentary on the Call
16. UK Bank Update + Fintechs
17. Final Thoughts
#175 (5.9.2023, $5.75):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 2)
7. Loss of a UK Bank (detailed information not on the call)
8. New Banks and Fintechs
9. Goal and Timing for MAUs on New Ad Server + New User Experience
10. One Question on the Call
#174 (5.8.2023, $5.81):
Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 1)
1. Cash Flow Positive Timing
2. Liquidity Resources (Cash, Line of Credit, Accounts Receivable)
3. Updated Liquidity Numbers (Post Earnout and Q2-Q4 Burn)
4. Chase and the New User Experience
5. New Offer Constructs and Timing (Spend-Stretch, Multi-Tier, Product-Level)
6. New Targeting
#172-173:
#173 (5.4.2023, $8.21):
Thoughts Before Today's Earnings Call
List of all the items I am looking out for (between the 10-Q, earnings call, investor follow-up calls, etc.)
#172 (5.3.2023, $8.15):
New & Improved Feature (on the New User Experience, seen at Chase)
Why this one feature could lead to:
Near-term increases in engagement & ARPU (average revenue per user)
Eventually produce cash flow that is multiples of today's market cap
#171:
#171 (5.1.2023, $8.41):
First Thoughts on Bridg Dispute Outcome
First Earnout versus Expectations
Cash versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Dilution versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Second Earnout $0 (possible reasons why this dropped to $0)
New Liquidity Position (factors in cash, LOC, Q1 and Q2 burn, and the new earnout payments….also a quite note on the 2025 convertible senior notes)
Underappreciated Secondary Benefit
#170:
#170 (4.27.2023, $6.48):
Updated VWAP Projections
5 trading days remaining of 20
New projection added (leads to highest level of ending liquidity, and may be more likely than most other scenarios)
#166-169:
#169 (4.25.2023, $5.79):
Updated VWAP Projections
7 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
New scenario added (given we now know the timing of Q1 earnings)
#168 (4.24.2023, $6.06):
Follow-up Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
Based on now knowing the timing of Q1 earnings
Additional thoughts related to recent large Form 4s
#167 (4.23.2023, $6.50):
Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
#166 (4.22.2023, $6.50):
Updated VWAP Projections
9 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
#164-165:
#165 (4.18.2023, $7.01):
Updated VWAP Projections
12 trading days remaining of 20
Additional graphs to more easily see changes and trends
Added ending share count and liquidity (after both earnout payments)
#164 (4.17.2023, $6.60):
Current VWAP for 2nd Bridg earnout payment (the stock component)
13 trading days remaining of 20
Stock prices and volume projections (for the 2nd VWAP)
#162-163:
#163 (4.12.2023, $6.00):
Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution
#162 (4.11.2023, $6.28):
Potential Bridg Clients
#160-161:
#161 (4.7.2023, $5.97):
Timing of Announcements
#160 (4.5.2023, $4.84):
Updated Projections
Convertible Senior Notes
#158-159:
#159 (4.4.2023, $6.24):
Updated Guidance
Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections
#158 (4.3.2023, $3.45):
Dates for 2nd Bridg Earnout Payment VWAP
Timing of Possible Announcements / Earnings
#156-157:
#157 (4.3.2023, $3.45):
Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule
#156 (4.1.2023, $3.39):
Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images
#154-155:
#155 (3.29.2023, $2.85):
How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share
#154 (3.28.2023, $2.60):
My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage Made Today
#150-153:
#153 (3.27.2023, $2.64):
Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price
#152 (3.26.2023, $2.67):
First Thoughts of the New User Experience on Chase
#151 (3.25.2023, $2.67):
Update to Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#150 (3.24.2023, $2.67):
Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#145-149:
#149 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
PacWest Deposits and LOC
#148 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
Resignation of CFO - New thought on timing, related to the earnouts
#147 (3.23.2023, $2.81):
Bridg Dispute
#146 (3.22.2023, $2.96):
Resignation of CFO - Updated and additional thoughts
#145 (3.22.2023, $2.96):
Resignation of CFO - Added my first thoughts
#140-144:
“Why I Bought More”
#144 (3.19.2023, $3.12):
Updated liquidity analysis (with recent LOC drawdown + earnouts + dispute)
Future diluted share count (with earnouts + dispute + if equity raise)
Future value per diluted share (vs today)
Includes video discussing this section
#143 (3.18.2023, $3.12):
Analysis of the new LOC covenants related to the Bridg earnouts and the dispute
#142 (3.15.2023, $3.39):
Analysis of the limit on the LOC from accounts receivable
#141 (3.14.2023, $3.63):
Analysis of the interest on the LOC
#140 (3.14.2023, $3.63):
Thoughts on the partial drawdown of the line of credit
Thoughts on CDLX minimizing exposure to any single financial institution and maximizing FDIC insurance
#133-139:
#139 (3.11.2023, $3.74):
Liquidity Analysis
Prior Use of SVB
#138 (3.9.2023, $4.15):
Chase and the New User Experience (on the new ad server
Convertible Senior Notes (a change related to maturity)
#137 (3.8.2023, $4.55):
Insider Buying
Confirmation of Reporting Mistakes
Confirmation of an Executive Leaving
#136 (3.6.2023, $4.94):
Line of Credit (Changes)
Bridg Earnouts and Dispute (Updates)
Updated Liquidity Analysis (After Bridg Earnouts and Dispute)
#135 (3.5.2023, $5.03):
Actual/Guidance vs Expected Financials (used to update assumptions and model)
#134 (3.4.2023, $5.03):
Potential Reporting Mistakes (x3)
#133 (3.3.2023, $5.03):
22Q4 Earnings, and More
Older notes:
Gain Access to Research Notes
In addition to gaining access to the notes above, upgrading your subscription will give you access to all Research Notes.
Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CDLX.
This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.
Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.
Join others and upgrade below to get access now:
Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:
I frequently send out emails that contain the most recent updates to these notes:
List of the the most recent updates in the CDLX Research Notes
Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:
I frequently send out emails that contain the most recent updates to these notes:
List of the the most recent updates in the CVNA Research Notes
General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):
Portfolio Updates:
Current holdings and allocations, and reasons behind recent buy / sell / hold decisions.
Reviews on the Research Notes
Gain Access to Research Notes
If would like access all these “Research Notes”, upgrade your subscription here: