Cardlytics ($CDLX): Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution, and Potential Bridg Clients (Updates #162 - #163)
New notes on the potential CDLX stock price following the upcoming Bridg resolution, as well as new discoveries related to potential Bridg clients.
Market Cap as of 4.12.2023: ~$6.00 / Share x 33.6M Shares ~ $202M Market Cap.
Given the large percentage change in the stock price following the updated Q1 guidance, and given the possible upcoming announcement related to the Bridg resolution that could be even more impactful, I wanted to create one way to think about how the stock price could change depending on the outcome of the dispute.
There is no way to know exactly how the price will move, and different scenarios could occur, but the analysis at the end of this post may be a helpful way to think through the situation and possibilities.
I also included some new findings related to possible Bridg clients (who could then also place product-level offers in CDLX).
I continue to believe the downside that many focus on has a very low probability of occurring, given everything that has been discussed in the Research Notes the last few weeks (included in the last 8 update emails for updates #133-139, #140-144, #145-149, #150-153, #154-155, #156-157, #158-159, #160-161), and that downside has decreased further with the updated guidance and higher stock price (given its impact on the 2nd Bridg earnout payment).
While I prefer to wait longer between update emails for the CDLX Research Notes, I want to make sure I deliver timely information to all of you with access to the Research Notes, especially given the all-time-low stock price (as well given the quick price changes).
The CDLX Research Notes Updates
At this time, all of the following notes are under
For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them at the end of this post.
Note, I do tweet out when I make an update to the Research Notes. Therefore, if you want more real-time updates, follow me on Twitter.
The order below matches how I copied them to the end of this post to read.
CDLX Research Notes: Update #163
Added on 4.12.2023
Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution
Takes into account the 2025 Convertible Senior Notes
Includes future projections of ARPU and MAUs
Multiple different projections with different / changing probabilities
Used as a way to think through possible stock price changes following new information
CDLX Research Notes: Update #162
Added on 4.11.2023
Potential Bridg Clients
I have shared a few of these potential clients before, but I have discovered new information that increases the odds of them being a Bridg client
Some of these companies could have a substantial financial impact in combination with CDLX with category / product-level budgets and offers
Includes a large grocery company, large home improvement store, large candy / chocolate / snack company, and more
Gain Access to Research Notes
In addition to gaining access to the notes above, upgrading your subscription will give you access to all Research Notes.
Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CDLX.
This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.
Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.
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Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:
For all of you with a paid subscription, you can read some of the recent updates:
#160-161 (4.7.2023): Timing of Announcements, Convertible Senior Notes, Updated Projections
#158-159: (4.4.2023) Updated Guidance + Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections
#156-157: (4.3.2023) Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule, Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images
#154-155: (3.30.2023) How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share, My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage
#150-153: (3.27.2023) Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price, New User Experience on My Chase Account, Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#145-149: (3.24.2023): PacWest Deposits and LOC, Bridg Dispute, Resignation of CFO
#140-144: (3.20.2023) Why I Bought More
#133-139: (3.12.2023) Liquidity Analysis, Prior Use of SVB, 22Q4 Earnings, and More
Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:
General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):
Reviews on the Research Notes
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If would like access all these “Research Notes”, upgrade your subscription here:
For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them directly below.