Research Notes: Cardlytics $CDLX (Quantitative #2)

Quantitative notes from researching, investigating, and thinking through Cardlytics.

Jul 24, 2022

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These are the CDLX Quantitative Research Notes #2. Use the following link to access the:

CDLX Qualitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3
CDLX Quantitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

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List of the the most recent updates in the CDLX Research Notes

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This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.

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Notes are split into Qualitative and Quantitative Research Notes, given I have hit the limit of content that will save in Substack (despite Substack saying there is no limit, which likely reflects the amount of notes stored here). I even hit the limit within each of those notes, which is why I’m splitting them again, with a second set of notes called Qualitative and Quantitative Research Notes #2.

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Research Notes: Cardlytics $CDLX (Quantitative #2)

Subject

Cardlytics ($CDLX)
Quantitative Research Notes #2
- I once again hit the Substack limit in #1 given the size of the notes, so I started a new page to have more room

Last Updated

Updated as of 7.1.2023

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How to Know When There are New Notes to Read

When I make an update to the Research Notes, I add the date of the change and the name of the section to the “Update Log” below the Table of Contents.
I also started sending out emails that contain the most recent updates to these notes.
- List of the the most recent updates in the CDLX Research Notes
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Table of Contents for Notes #2

These are the notes on this page (for the remained of the notes, see Quantitative Research Notes #1 and #3).

Growth Factors (included in quantitative notes due to to relations to valuations)
1. General CDLX Growth Factors1
  1. The $100B Opportunity with Retail Media Networks and CPGs
  2. New & Improved Feature (on the New User Experience, seen at Chase)
  3. Possibly New FI Partners Signing and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule (Based on New Job Listing)
  4. The Possibilities and Potential Impact of the New Use of Images on the New User Experience
  5. How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share (leading to single digit P/E and P/FCF, including P/FCF<1, assuming no revenue growth)
  6. Chase Launches the New User Experience
  7. Incentivizing Users to Buy Gift Cards or Reload Account Balances
  8. New Data and Observations Regarding Increasing Usage and Understanding of Incrementality by Advertisers and Agencies
  9. Growth Factors to Offset Chase (including from new ad server)
    1. Engagement and ARPU growth from new ad server
    2. Equity raises and new dilution calculation
    3. New calculations of future cash flow (and multiples of today’s market cap)
  10. Increasing Engagement through Notifications
  11. Social Proof
  12. Video
  13. Everything Moving in the Same Direction
  14. Future Possibilities
  15. Other Areas of Growth
2. Bridg Growth2
3. What is Needed for Massive Scale3
4. Loyalty Programs / Lower Rev Share4
5. Similarities to a 100 Bagger (Washington Post Investment and Charlie Munger Comments in 2021)5
6. LTV/CAC6
7. Growing MAUs7
  1. Partnering with AmEx
  2. Growing MAUs through Partnerships - Why CDLX Should Still Focus on This
8. Best Case Scenario with Venmo8
Increasing ARPU According to Management9
Total Addressable Market10
The Current Situation and Updated Investment Prospects11
1. Liquidity Analysis / Financial Projections12

Update Log

3.26.2023, 3.29.2023, 4.1.2023, 4.3.2023, 5.3.2023, 7.1.2023
- General CDLX Growth Factors
  - (#179) 7.1.2023: The $100B Opportunity with Retail Media Networks and CPGs
  - (#172) 5.3.2023: New & Improved Feature (on the New User Experience, seen at Chase)
  - (#157) 4.3.2023: Possibly New FI Partners Signing and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule (Based on New Job Listing)
  - (#156) 4.1.2023: The Possibilities and Potential Impact of the New Use of Images on the New User Experience
  - 3.29.2023: How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share (leading to single digit P/E and P/FCF, including P/FCF<1, assuming no revenue growth)
  - 3.26.2023: First Thoughts of the New User Experience on Chase
3.24.2023, 3.25.2023
- Liquidity Analysis / Financial Projections:
  - Other Less-Considered Resources for Additional Liquidity
3.16.2023
- General CDLX Growth Factors
  - Chase Launches the New User Experience
12.27.2022, 12.28.2022
- Liquidity Analysis / Financial Projections (Update)
12.18.2022 (and updated these on 12.22.22)
- The Current Situation and Updated Investment Prospects - Dec 2022
  - Liquidity Analysis / Financial Projections
12.15.2022 and 12.16.2022
- The Current Situation and Updated Investment Prospects - Dec 2022
10.20.2022
- Growth Factors: Incentivizing Users to Buy Gift Cards or Reload Account Balances
10.4.2022, 10.5.2022
- Growth Factors: New Data and Observations Regarding Increasing Usage and Understanding of Incrementality by Advertisers and Agencies
9.12.2022 - 9.14.2022
- Similarities to a 100 Bagger (Washington Post Investment and Charlie Munger Comments in 2021)
9.8.2022
- General Growth Factors: Growth to Offset Chase
  - Engagement and ARPU growth from new ad server
  - Equity raises and new dilution calculation
  - New calculations of future cash flow (and multiples of today’s market cap)
5.18.2022
- Growth Factors: Bridg Growth
5.16.2022
- Growth Factors: Increasing ARPU According to Management
3.20.2022
- General Growth Factors: Increasing Engagement through Notifications
3.13.2022
- General Growth Factors: Social Proof
3.12.2022
- Growing MAU: Partnering with AmEx
2.10.2022
- General Growth Factors - Video
1.16.2022
- Bridg Growth
1.6.2022
- What is Needed for Massive Scale
12.15.2021
- General Growth Factors
- Total Addressable Market
11.25.2021
- Similarities to a 100 Bagger (Washington Post Investment and Charlie Munger Comments in 2021)
11.9.2021
- LTV / CAC
9.20.2021
- Total Addressable Market
9.17.2021
- Growing MAUs through Partnerships - Why CDLX Should Still Focus on This
9.1.2021 and 9.3.2021
- General Growth Factors
7.15.2021
- Best Case Scenario with Venmo
4.29.2021
- General Growth Factors

Disclaimer for Research Notes

There may be incorrect information, outdated information, or errors in the following contents, as the following are notes that I wrote down while researching. I include dates where I have them, making it easier to know when the notes / thoughts were written down. The older the notes, the more likely I have changed my mind or found new information.
This is not investment advice.
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