Research Notes: Cardlytics $CDLX (Quantitative #3)

Quantitative notes from researching, investigating, and thinking through Cardlytics.

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These are the CDLX Quantitative Research Notes #3. Use the following link to access the:

• CDLX Qualitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

• CDLX Quantitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

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Research Notes: Cardlytics $CDLX (Quantitative #3)

Subject

• Cardlytics ($CDLX)

• Quantitative Research Notes #3

Last Updated

• Updated as of 5.23.2023

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Table of Contents for Notes #3

These are the notes on this page (for the remained of the notes, see Quantitative Research Notes #1 and #2).

1. Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

   1. Cardlytics Valuations¹

      1. "1,000 Bagger" Valuation Scenarios

      2. Dilution Following Bridg Earnout and New CEO

      3. Margin of Safety from Multiple Paths to Win

      4. Discussions on how Cardlytics could be worth $0 to $1 Trillion+

      5. What Needs to Happen / Reverse DCF / What’s Implied

      6. CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value

   2. Dosh / Venmo Partnership Valuations²

      1. How Good Could it Get?

      2. Value of Dosh and Venmo Offers Revisited

      3. Value of "Venmo Offers" Could Equal Entire CDLX Market Cap

   3. Bridg Valuations³

   4. Open Banking⁴

      1. The Free Option on the Hidden Potential Cash Cow

         1. Growth Within Existing Partnerships + Growth in Loyalty Program Partnerships in the U.K.

         2. Growth in Loyalty Program Partnerships Everywhere Open Banking is Live

         3. Growth in Loyalty Program Partnerships Everywhere

      2. TAM with Open Banking

      3. How Good Could it Get? (Valuation)

         1. If True, Why We Haven’t Seen this with CDLX?

         2. If True, Why Haven’t we Seen this With Dosh, who Already has More Partners?

         3. What CDLX Needs to Do for this to Occur

      4. FI Share

      5. Reverse DCF on Open Banking

2. Measurement

   1. Current Mentality of Advertisers⁵

   2. Incrementality⁶

   3. Models⁷

      1. Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA)

      2. Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)

      3. Total Marketing Modeling Approach

   4. Why iOS14.5 Could Increase CDLX Ad Spend⁸

3. "The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing" (Summary and Notes)⁹

Update Log

• 5.23.2023

  • (#177) 5.24.2023: "1,000 Bagger" Valuation Scenarios

• 7.24.2022

  • Cardlytics Valuations: Dilution Following Bridg Earnout and New CEO

• 4.7.2022

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Open Banking: The Free Option on the Hidden Potential Cash Cow

• 4.5.2022

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Open Banking: How Good Could it Get (Valuations)?

    • If True, Why We Haven’t Seen this with CDLX?

    • If True, Why Haven’t we Seen this With Dosh, who Already has More Partners?

    • What CDLX Needs to Do for this to Occur

• 4.1.2022

  • Measurement: Current Mentality of Advertisers

  • Measurement: Why iOS14.5 Could Increase CDLX Ad Spend - Updated thoughts on what needs to happen

• 3.21.2022

  • Margin of Safety from Multiple Paths to Win

• 3.18.2022

  • Margin of Safety from Multiple Paths to Win

• 3.9.2022

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Dosh: How Good Could it Get?

• 3.8.2022

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Dosh: Value of Dosh and Venmo Offers Revisited

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Open Banking

• 3.3.2022

  • Valuations / Intrinsic Values / DCFs / Reverse DCFs: Open Banking

• 2.6.2022

  • Why iOS14.5 Could Increase CDLX Ad Spend

• 1.16.2022

  • CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

  • Bridg Valuations

• 9.29.2021

  • Why iOS14.5 Could Increase CDLX Ad Spend

• 9.20.2021

  • Incrementality

  • Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA)

  • Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)

  • Total Marketing Modeling Approach

• 9.17.2021

  • CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

• 9.10.2021

  • "The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing"

• 8.21.2021

  • Incrementality

• 8.19.2021

  • CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

• 6.15.2021

  • Dosh / Venmo Partnership Valuations

• 5.17.2021

  • CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

• 4.29.2021

  • CDLX Valuations / Intrinsic Value / DCFs / Reverse DCFs

Disclaimer for Research Notes

• There may be incorrect information, outdated information, or errors in the following contents, as the following are notes that I wrote down while researching. I include dates where I have them, making it easier to know when the notes / thoughts were written down. The older the notes, the more likely I have changed my mind or found new information.

• This is not investment advice.

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• Please see the Disclaimer page for more details.

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