Cardlytics ($CDLX): Updated Bridg VWAP Projections, Thoughts on Timing of Earnings and the Bridg Resolution (Update #166 - #169)
Updated Bridg VWAP projections (with different stock prices and volume) for the stock component of the 2nd Bridg earnout payment, and thoughts on the timing of Q1 earnings and the Bridg resolution.
Market Cap as of 4.25.2023: ~$5.79 / Share x 33.6M Shares ~ $195M Market Cap.
At the end of this post, I included updated estimates and projections for the 2nd VWAP (volume-weighted average price) for the stock component of the 2nd Bridg earnout payment.
The reason for projecting out different VWAPs (from different scenarios of future stock prices and volume) is it leads to different possible ending share counts and liquidity for CDLX. (Given we now know the timing of Q1 earnings, I revised one of the projections.)
Also below, I discuss my thoughts on the timing of earnings (and what it could indicate), as well as my thoughts on the timing of the Bridg resolution (such as the different possibilities, including the possible outcome based on the two recent large Form 4s).
The CDLX Research Notes Updates
At this time, all of the following notes are under
For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them at the end of this post.
Note, I do tweet out when I make an update to the Research Notes. Therefore, if you want more real-time updates, follow me on Twitter. (I also have been posting on Substack Notes when there is an update.)
The order below matches how I copied them to the end of this post to read.
CDLX Research Notes: Update #166
Added on 4.22.2023
Updated VWAP Projections
9 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
CDLX Research Notes: Update #167
Added on 4.23.2023
Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
CDLX Research Notes: Update #168
Added on 4.24.2023
Follow-up Thoughts on the Timing of Q1 Earnings + Announcing the Bridg Resolution
Based on now knowing the timing of Q1 earnings
Additional thoughts related to recent large Form 4s
CDLX Research Notes: Update #169
Added on 4.25.2023
Updated VWAP Projections
7 trading days remaining of 20
Includes detailed graphs and tables
New scenario added (given we now know the timing of Q1 earnings)
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Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CDLX.
This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.
Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.
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Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:
For all of you with a paid subscription, you can read some of the recent updates:
#164-165 (4.19.2023): Bridg VWAP Projections (12 and 13 trading days remaining of 20)
#162-163 (4.12.2023): Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution, Potential Bridg Clients
160-161 (4.7.2023): Timing of Announcements, Convertible Senior Notes, Updated Projections
#158-159 (4.4.2023): Updated Guidance + Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections
#156-157 (4.3.2023): Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule, Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images
#154-155 (3.30.2023): How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share, My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage
#150-153 (3.27.2023): Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price, New User Experience on My Chase Account, Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#145-149 (3.24.2023): PacWest Deposits and LOC, Bridg Dispute, Resignation of CFO
#140-144 (3.20.2023): Why I Bought More
#133-139 (3.12.2023): Liquidity Analysis, Prior Use of SVB, 22Q4 Earnings, and More
I have also added a page to keep track of these updates as well.
Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:
General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):
Reviews on the Research Notes
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For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them directly below.
The Updates:
(#166) 4.22.2023: Updated VWAP Projections (9 Days Remaining of 20)
(Note, this is as of 4/22. I provide updated VWAP projections as of 4/25 with two additional days of actual stock prices and volume in update #169 at the end. Also if you haven’t already, I suggest reading the last set of updates first (#164-165), since that goes into detail on the different projections and the setup.)