Cardlytics ($CDLX): First Thoughts on the Bridg Dispute Outcome (Update #171)
New notes regarding today's update on the Bridg earnout payments and dispute.
Market Cap as of 5.1.2023: ~$8.26 / Share x 33.6M Shares ~ $278M Market Cap (I will wait to update the share count following earnings this Thursday)
Today CDLX provided an update on the Bridg earnout payments and the dispute.
At the end of this post is Research Notes Update #171, where I go over many different aspects of the earnout payments:
First Earnout versus Expectations
Cash versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Dilution versus Expectations / Fears (both for the first earnout and in total)
Second Earnout $0 (possible reasons why this dropped to $0)
New Liquidity Position (factors in cash, drawdown of LOC, Q1 and Q2 burn, and the new earnout payments….also a quick note on the 2025 convertible senior notes)
Underappreciated Secondary Benefit
While we are likely to find out more soon at and after earnings (Thursday, May 4th), I wanted to send out my first thoughts and notes, given how important this update is.
I will send out additional updates as I continue to learn more.
The CDLX Research Notes Updates
At this time, all of the following notes are under
For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them at the end of this post.
Note, I do tweet out when I make an update to the Research Notes. Therefore, if you want more real-time updates, follow me on Twitter. (I also have been posting on Substack Notes when there is an update.)
The order below matches how I copied them to the end of this post to read.
CDLX Research Notes: Update #171
Added on 5.1.2023
First Thoughts on the Bridg Dispute Outcome
Gain Access to Research Notes
In addition to gaining access to the notes above, upgrading your subscription will give you access to all Research Notes.
Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CDLX.
This is where I continue to add additional notes, observations, and thoughts.
Some of the notes have never been made, nor will be made, into official posts that are public to read.
Join others and upgrade below to get access now:
Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:
For all of you with a paid subscription, you can read some of the recent updates:
#170 (4.27.2023): Updated VWAP Projections + Additional Bridg Earnout Payment Possibility
#166-169 (4.25.2023): Updated Bridg VWAP Projections, Thoughts on Timing of Earnings and the Bridg Resolution
#164-165 (4.19.2023): Bridg VWAP Projections (12 and 13 trading days remaining of 20)
#162-163 (4.12.2023): Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution, Potential Bridg Clients
160-161 (4.7.2023): Timing of Announcements, Convertible Senior Notes, Updated Projections
#158-159 (4.4.2023): Updated Guidance + Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections
#156-157 (4.3.2023): Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule, Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images
#154-155 (3.30.2023): How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share, My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage
#150-153 (3.27.2023): Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price, New User Experience on My Chase Account, Less-Considered Liquidity Resources
#145-149 (3.24.2023): PacWest Deposits and LOC, Bridg Dispute, Resignation of CFO
#140-144 (3.20.2023): Why I Bought More
#133-139 (3.12.2023): Liquidity Analysis, Prior Use of SVB, 22Q4 Earnings, and More
I have also added a page to keep track of these updates as well.
Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:
General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):
Reviews on the Research Notes
Gain Access
If would like access all these “Research Notes”, upgrade your subscription here:
For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them directly below.