Cardlytics ($CDLX): Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings (Updates #174 - #176)

New notes following Q1 2023 earnings.

Market Cap as of 5.11.2023: ~$6.41 / Share x 33.9M Shares ~ $217M Market Cap

(Note: Given the quantity of notes, the following is split into three parts)

At the end of this post are my thoughts following Q1 2023 earnings (including based on commentary from CDLX after the call), which includes:

1. Cash Flow Positive Timing

2. Liquidity Resources (Cash, Line of Credit, Accounts Receivable)

3. Updated Liquidity Numbers (Post Earnout and Q2-Q4 Burn)

4. Chase and the New User Experience

5. New Offer Constructs and Timing (Spend-Stretch, Multi-Tier, Product-Level)

6. New Targeting

7. Loss of a UK Bank (detailed information not on the call)

8. New Banks and Fintechs

9. Goal and Timing for MAUs on New Ad Server + New User Experience

10. One Question on the Call

11. Updated FCF Timing Expectations From CDLX (and an additional liquidity scenario)

12. Additional Notes on Line of Credit (Amount Available, vs Factoring)

13. Additional Notes on 2025 Converts (and potential near-term ARPU)

14. Other Less-Discussed Liquidity Resources

15. Possible Reasons for Lack of Positive Commentary on the Call

16. UK Bank Update + Fintechs

17. Final Thoughts

The CDLX Research Notes Updates

At this time, all of the following notes are under

• Q1 2023 Earnings: Notes and Thoughts After the Call

For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them at the end of this post.

Note, I do tweet out when I make an update to the Research Notes. Therefore, if you want more real-time updates, follow me on Twitter. (I also have been posting on Substack Notes when there is an update.)

The order below matches how I copied them to the end of this post to read.

CDLX Research Notes: Update #174

Added on 5.8.2023

• Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 1)

  • 1. Cash Flow Positive Timing

  • 2. Liquidity Resources (Cash, Line of Credit, Accounts Receivable)

  • 3. Updated Liquidity Numbers (Post Earnout and Q2-Q4 Burn)

  • 4. Chase and the New User Experience

  • 5. New Offer Constructs and Timing (Spend-Stretch, Multi-Tier, Product-Level)

  • 6. New Targeting

CDLX Research Notes: Update #175

Added on 5.9.2023

• Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 2)

  • 7. Loss of a UK Bank (detailed information not on the call)

  • 8. New Banks and Fintechs

  • 9. Goal and Timing for MAUs on New Ad Server + New User Experience

  • 10. One Question on the Call

CDLX Research Notes: Update #176

Added on 5.11.2023

• Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 3)

  • 11. Updated FCF Timing Expectations From CDLX (and an additional liquidity scenario)

  • 12. Additional Notes on Line of Credit (Amount Available, vs Factoring)

  • 13. Additional Notes on 2025 Converts (and potential near-term ARPU)

  • 14. Other Less-Discussed Liquidity Resources

  • 15. Possible Reasons for Lack of Positive Commentary on the Call

  • 16. UK Bank Update + Fintechs

  • 17. Final Thoughts

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• Research Notes contain information I have collected while researching, investigating, analyzing, and thinking through businesses, such as CDLX.

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Cardlytics ($CDLX) Research Notes:

• Cardlytics ($CDLX) Qualitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

• Cardlytics ($CDLX) Quantitative Research Notes: #1, #2, #3

For all of you with a paid subscription, you can read some of the recent updates:

• #172-173 (5.4.2023): New & Improved Feature, Final Thoughts Before Today's Earnings Call

• #171 (5.1.2023): First Thoughts on Bridg Dispute Outcome

• #170 (4.27.2023): Updated VWAP Projections + Additional Bridg Earnout Payment Possibility

• #166-169 (4.25.2023): Updated Bridg VWAP Projections, Thoughts on Timing of Earnings and the Bridg Resolution

• #164-165 (4.19.2023): Bridg VWAP Projections (12 and 13 trading days remaining of 20)

• #162-163 (4.12.2023): Potential Stock Price After the Bridg Resolution, Potential Bridg Clients

• 160-161 (4.7.2023): Timing of Announcements, Convertible Senior Notes, Updated Projections

• #158-159 (4.4.2023): Updated Guidance + Updated Liquidity Analysis and Projections

• #156-157 (4.3.2023): Potential for New Banks Signing Soon and/or Remaining Banks Moving to the New Ad Server Ahead of Schedule, Possibilities and Potential Impact of Images

• #154-155 (3.30.2023): How Bridg Can Lower FI Revenue Share, My Latest Large Purchases of CDLX with Leverage

• #150-153 (3.27.2023): Possible Upcoming Announcements that Could Increase the Stock Price, New User Experience on My Chase Account, Less-Considered Liquidity Resources

• #145-149 (3.24.2023): PacWest Deposits and LOC, Bridg Dispute, Resignation of CFO

• #140-144 (3.20.2023): Why I Bought More

• #133-139 (3.12.2023): Liquidity Analysis, Prior Use of SVB, 22Q4 Earnings, and More

I have also added a page to keep track of these updates as well.

Carvana ($CVNA) Research Notes:

• Carvana ($CVNA): Qualitative Research Notes

• Carvana ($CVNA): Quantitative Research Notes

General Research Notes on Businesses, Investments, and CEOs (Historical to Current):

• General Research Notes

Reviews on the Research Notes

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For convenience, I copied over the corresponding sections of the Research Notes and pasted them directly below.

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The Updates:

(#174) 5.8.2023: Thoughts After Q1 2023 Earnings Call (Part 1)